Will the NFL Draft bring mayhem? How league coaches, execs expect top 10 picks to unfold (2024)

Prepare for mayhem.

The first 10 picks of the NFL Draft Thursday night could become pandemonium, as a perfect storm of unpredictability is forming due to the quarterback tiers, game-changing players on offense and a few teams that seem desperate to make a trade.

After speaking to about a dozen coaches and personnel executives around the league over the past week to gain intel on team needs and player fits, we’ve compiled a mock draft for the top-10 picks. The following is our best attempt at trying to form a consensus opinion on what could happen early Thursday night.

1. Chicago Bears: USC QB Caleb Williams

As a couple of high-ranking executives told The Athletic in March, “Don’t overthink it. He’s the best player in the draft.”

Williams has long been viewed as the likely No. 1 pick, and that outcome has been the assumption by rival teams for the past couple of months. Most team sources believe Williams is in a tier of his own, while the Bears have done an excellent job of building up the roster around the quarterback over the past year.

The Bears, who are perpetually in search of a franchise quarterback, finally appear to have the stars in alignment. Not only are they getting the best QB in the draft, but Williams will be entering a situation that should be conducive to a solid developmental track.

2. Washington Commanders: LSU QB Jayden Daniels

Word around the league is the Commanders have advocates in the building for Daniels and Drake Maye. However, almost everyone polled for this story believed Daniels was destined for Washington with new general manager Adam Peters hot for the LSU product.

The belief from rival teams is the Commanders had been leaning toward Maye much earlier in the pre-draft process — before the Senior Bowl, combine and pro-day circuit — but Daniels has done enough to lock himself into the No. 2 pick.

However, one executive from a team outside of the top 10 wouldn’t rule out a brief Daniels slide, perhaps down to No. 4. The Arizona Cardinals would surely love that because they could retrieve a haul for the fourth pick, but too many other teams pegged Daniels to D.C.

3. New England Patriots: North Carolina QB Drake Maye

This feels like Maye’s spot, although a couple of executives made a case for J.J. McCarthy.

Maye has prototypical size, arm strength and -athletic ability, especially for a cold-weather team where it becomes increasingly important to throw through the winter elements. But there’s genuine concern about Maye’s inconsistencies last season, and his tape shed light on some erratic throws and tendencies. There are some coaches and executives who couldn’t get past his mistakes from 2023.

However, his physical attributes are tantalizing, and coaches should be drooling over the chance to develop him in the NFL. He has a reputation as a high-character person with terrific leadership ability and should be worth the swing for the Patriots at No. 3.

Maye would be the more traditional pick, with McCarthy being viewed as more of a surprising option.

“I don’t think (de facto general manager) Eliot (Wolf) wants to make too many surprises,” a coach said of Wolf’s first go-round running the draft.

The Patriots have done a good job of advertising their willingness to listen to trade offers for this pick, and any well-run organization should do that. They owe it to themselves to find out what’s out there.

The New England Patriots are listening and taking calls from teams looking to move into 3.

While Eliot Wolf is running point, I’m told Patriots’ President Jonathan Kraft is heavily involved in the decision making.

— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) April 22, 2024

Case in point, if Maye is indeed still on the board here, one executive believed the Minnesota Vikings “would move heaven and earth” in an attempt to move up. There will be some drama around this pick on draft night, but maybe not as much as what’s to come next …

4. New York Giants: Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy

(The Giants trade No. 6 and a 2025 second-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals.)

Buckle up.

“That’s where it gets interesting,” an executive said.

Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort is eager to trade down. He worked the board well last year and should feel confident he can do it again. But the belief around the league is teams haven’t been tripping over themselves to pay a premium to move up to No. 4, at least not yet.

The price could change if Maye or Daniels remain available at No. 4. That scenario would probably make the Vikings or Raiders more aggressive in pursuing this pick, which theoretically could mean the Giants would make a bigger offer. That’s Ossenfort’s dream scenario.

“The Giants is kind of where it all starts, whether it’s a trade or otherwise,” an executive said.

Some executives are high on McCarthy’s potential, but he’s more of a projection than the other three QBs. He’s got a good arm, mobility and leadership characteristics, but Michigan didn’t ask him to open it up in the passing game very often.

Rival executives cited concerns with incumbent QB Daniel Jones’ health after a torn ACL and a troubling neck injury as it related to the Giants’ need to address the position. And since the Giants can get out of Jones’ contract after the 2024 season, there’s little harm in opening a QB competition this summer.

There’s another element at play, however. The Giants need a receiver and have shown real interest in Marvin Harrison Jr. Would they trade up for him or risk it and hope he falls to No. 6?

While a few executives believed there was merit to that strategy, they couldn’t ignore how much interest the Giants have shown in the QB class and believed that was the more likely route.

“I think there’s going to be a race to McCarthy between the Giants and Vikings,” a coach said.

If the Vikings win that race to No. 4, the Giants could stick with a receiver and target a quarterback at No. 47.

5. Los Angeles Chargers: Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Chargers are also looking to trade down. It’d help their chances if the Cardinals stayed at No. 4 and took a receiver, thus opening the door for a team to move up for McCarthy or another QB. But that’s not how it went down in this scenario.

Depending on the price, there are teams in the top half of the first round who might be inclined to jump to No. 5 for Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt or one of the top three receivers. It’d come down to how desperate the Chargers are to add picks.

New head coach Jim Harbaugh may prefer to address the trenches, and Alt would be a tremendous choice here. Alt is talented enough to play on both sides, so they’d have the flexibility to sort out the best combination with Rashawn Slater.

But there’s no wrong answer here. Harrison would be quarterback Justin Herbert’s top receiver almost immediately, which would be important after trading Keenan Allen and cutting Mike Williams. Harbaugh also got a first-hand view of Harrison’s ability during their college clashes, so this shouldn’t be a hard sell.

Those polled for this story were unanimous in their belief the Chargers would take a receiver or tackle if they couldn’t trade down, with a wideout getting the slight edge.

But an executive summed up the feelings of the group by saying, “I have no idea what Harbaugh is thinking.”

One alternate reality that’s been discussed: If the Vikings move up to No. 4, the Giants could flip with the Chargers to take Harrison, which would leave Alt for the Chargers at No. 6.

6. Arizona Cardinals: LSU WR Malik Nabers

A couple of executives believed Nabers could be the Cardinals’ choice at No. 4, so this would serve as a big win if that’s the case. Nabers is a burner who would instantly help quarterback Kyler Murray, and the Cardinals have a glaring need at receiver.

This caps an interesting stretch that impacts the rest of the top 10. Alt, Harrison, Nabers and wide receiver Rome Odunze are viewed as top-tier players at their position, and the Titans, Bears and New York Jets are all likely to be in the market for that group.

Their availability at each pick could force teams to adjust their strategies on the fly.

7. Tennessee Titans: Notre Dame OT Joe Alt

This is shaping up to be the Titans’ ideal scenario. Alt is an elite tackle and fits the Titans’ biggest need. If the Chargers take a receiver, it should clear a path for Alt to Nashville, which would certainly please new offensive line coach Bill Callahan.

“It feels like too much of a slam dunk,” an executive said of the Titans taking Alt.

If Alt goes earlier, Penn State’s Olu Fashanu and Alabama’s J.C. Latham would be sufficient tackle options. A couple of coaches also mentioned the possibility of the Titans shifting toward a receiver, but it might be too much to pass by the top crop of tackles.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner

Not a single coach or executive mocked a defensive player in the opening seven picks for this story, leaving new Falcons head coach Raheem Morris with his chance to tab the best defensive player in the draft class.

Turner was widely viewed as the favorite because he is the top pass rusher in the draft, and most believed he was the best overall defensive player. One executive didn’t want to dismiss UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu at this spot, though.

Another said cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell are among the 10 highest-graded players in the class. While either would be a good pick, the Falcons haven’t finished in the top 10 in sacks since 2004, so they’re desperate in this department.

9. Chicago Bears: Washington WR Rome Odunze

Opinions were all over the map with this pick, but the panel essentially determined the Bears would take a top-three receiver if one remained available. Caleb Williams would then be throwing to Odunze, receivers D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen and tight end Cole Kmet.

The Bears could also try to upgrade the offensive line with someone like Penn State tackle Olu Fashanu, but the logic from rival teams is that Odunze would be too good to pass up.

The Bears are also viewed as candidates to trade down because they don’t have a second-round pick due to the midseason trade for edge rusher Montez Sweat. As it stands, the Bears wouldn’t be on the clock again until the 75h pick, so swapping picks with a team eyeing Odunze would close that gap.

Lastly, while defense wasn’t viewed as the Bears’ primary need, a handful of coaches and executives mentioned an up-front presence as a possibility at No. 9. That could be Latu or Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy.

10. New York Jets: Georgia TE Brock Bowers

This pick may come down to the weight of quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ influence.

The Jets’ greatest need, according to the vast majority of coaches and executives for this story, is on the offensive line. Fashanu would serve a fitting purpose, and the Jets surely don’t want to squander another season because they couldn’t protect their quarterback.

But Rodgers has been vocal throughout his career when it comes to wanting weapons at skill positions, and the Jets have done plenty over the past year to cater to his personnel desires. Odunze would be a layup if he fell past the Bears; the Jets might even try to move up for him.

That’s why Bowers was the popular pick. He was a productive playmaker for three years at Georgia and is clearly the best tight end in the class. He also is viewed as a safe selection, even if there’s a valid debate on the merits of taking a tight end so high.

If Rodgers has the pull, Bowers and Odunze are viewed as the favorites for this pick, but bypassing Fashanu would raise some eyebrows.

(Photos of Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr. and J.J. McCarthy:
Rich von Biberstein, Ben Jackson and Brian Rothmuller /Getty Images)